Yes, Pokemon booster boxes are worth investing in. And today I’ll explain to you why.
Key Takeaways:
- Over 3x the annualized ROI compared to the S&P 500
- Top 3 sets have a 6.75x higher annualized ROI compared to S&P 500
- One of the most liquid Pokemon products
- A dwindling supply of product as booster boxes move out of print
A High Return on Investment (ROI)
Since February 16th, 2020, the S&P 500 index has seen an 80.90% return on investment (ROI), or, an annualized return on investment (A-ROI) of 12.59%.
Over that 5 year period, there have been 20 booster boxes released onto the market. Today, we will look at 17 of them, from Sword & Shield Base Set all the way up to Temporal Forces.
| Set | Purchase Price | Current Market Price (2/16/2025) | Annualized ROI (%) |
| SWSH Base | $100 | $352.44 | 28.49% |
| Rebel Clash | $100 | $235.22 | 19.52% |
| Darkness Ablaze | $100 | $195.59 | 16.04% |
| Vivid Voltage | $100 | $184.12 | 15.41% |
| Battle Styles | $100 | $163.33 | 13.35% |
| Chilling Reign | $100 | $318.18 | 37.13% |
| Evolving Skies | $100 | $1327.94 | 110.53% |
| Fusion Strike | $100 | $450.71 | 58.63% |
| Brilliant Stars | $100 | $284.78 | 42.11% |
| Astral Radiance | $100 | $228.89 | 35.50% |
| Lost Origin | $100 | $346.19 | 66.41% |
| Silver Tempest | $100 | $236.88 | 46.32% |
| SV Base | $100 | $151.04 | 24.49% |
| Paldea Evolved | $100 | $203.20 | 52.11% |
| Obsidian Flames | $100 | $188.49 | 51.84% |
| Paradox Rift | $100 | $160.24 | 44.22% |
| Temporal Forces | $100 | $169.87 | 79.37% |
| ———————————————- | ———————————————- | ———————————————- | 43.62% |
A few things to point out:
- A purchase price of $100 was used. For pretty much every set released over the past 5 years, even up to Surging Sparks, boxes could be preordered or purchased at release for $100 or less
- Annualized ROI is used instead of standard ROI. Since some sets are much older than others on the list, it helps give us a better idea of which are the stronger sets since they are all being compared on the same playing field.
- The reason Twilight Masquerade, Stellar Crown, and Surging Sparks were not included is because they are much newer sets, not even close to a year old. Annualized ROI data tends to become very skewed when looking at sets this young into their cycles.
The Strongest Sets Dominate
Based on the data table above, we already know the average of all the boxes is a 43.62% A-ROI, over three times as high as the S&P 500 over the same time frame.
That said, if we take the 5 best performing sets (Evolving Skies, Temporal Forces, Lost Origin, Fusion Strike, and Paldea Evolved) we get an average of 73.41% annualized ROI, 5.83x higher than the S&P 500 average.
Now, it is important to understand if you are going to invest in Pokemon booster boxes that it’s not clear out the gate which ones will outperform. This is why I recommend diversifying in the beginning and buying some booster boxes at each release. However, after a couple years of the sets being on the market, we can use the values of the top 1/3/5/10 hits in the sets to rank the booster boxes and decide which sets we should sell and which ones we should invest heavier in.
Again, you don’t have to do this. A diversified portfolio of booster boxes is still outperforming the S&P 500 and making it worth investing into.
With All the Pros, There Are Some Cons
Obviously, I believe Pokemon booster box investing is worth it. That said, I would not be a good writer if I didn’t tell you about the downsides and potential risks. Here are some of the top concerns to consider:
- Booster boxes are a physical item that takes up space in your home
- Liquidating booster boxes is not as easy as selling stocks in an online portfolio
- There is always a risk of flooding, fire, or theft, destroying your investment
- There is a risk of being scammed when purchasing booster boxes
Now, most of these cons are not major concerns. The odds your home burns down, floods, or you get robbed, are incredibly low. The risk of being scammed, especially if you are buying a modern booster box are also incredibly low.
Both of these issues are incredibly easy to deal with as well. Insuring your investments is cheap and can often be covered under your home owners’ insurance up to a certain dollar threshold.
As for not getting scammed, just buy from reputable sellers and companies. This is something I discuss in further detail in my ultimate Pokemon investing guide.
Liquidation and space requirements are the much more relevant considerations in my mind. If you do plan on investing heavily in Pokemon, I would suggest setting up an eBay store and building up 50-100 feedback, so you will be positioned as a trusted seller when you are ready to offload boxes. You could also sell locally through Facebook Marketplace, but the same concern advice applies for building up a good rating and becoming a trusted seller.
Physical space is going to come down to your personal situation. For me, one of the reasons I believe booster boxes are great is because they are the most space-efficient Pokemon product on the market, fitting the most amount of packs possible into a confined space.
Conclusion
Pokemon booster boxes are worth investing in for most people. The average box will offer you returns more than 3x what you’ll expect from the S&P 500, with the top-tier sets offering almost 6x returns. Again, there will be fees associated with booster box sales such as eBay fees or shipping. You’ll also need to spend some time building up your reputation as a trusted seller, or at least have someone to sell your product for you when the time comes.
If you’re looking to buy a few booster boxes, I wrote a list with the cheapest prices on the open market for each box. I will do my best to update this weekly.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out through email or Instagram and I’ll do my best to help you out.